Market Expectations Before SegWit2x Hard Fork
Update: SegWit2x hard fork has since been called off.
After surviving a series of bearish technical pressures leveled against it last week, Bitcoin has started this week on a better note. At the time of this post (Wednesday, November 8th 2017), the exchange rate of the Bitcoin-US dollar was at $7,511 USD. This reflects a 4.22% gain just within the last 24 hours.
Over the period of the last 24 hours, prices of this world’s largest cryptocurrency have gone up over $270, despite a serious opposition associated to the upcoming SegWit2x hard fork. SegWit2x hard fork also appears more unlikely to bear success in its bid to upgrade the Bitcoin blockchain to a new set of rules without coming up with another asset.
Growing opposition to the alternative code for Bitcoin could lead to heightened odds of the split of the blockchain into two competing assets. Therefore, the bid tone that surrounds Bitcoin may get strength from the speculation circulating that SegWit2x may end up introducing SegWit2x coins intended for Bitcoin holders. This is unconfirmed news and is still treated just like mere speculation.
Will The Hard Fork Succeed?
A survey on the futures market also shows lower chances of the hard fork getting a successful implementation. SegWit2x futures, for instance, have dropped down to 8% just within the last 24 hours. When put to the $1,968.80 high that was experienced on November 4th, the SegWit2x futures are currently down 33.96%. But caution is still advised despite all these.
Even if the predictions of a split come to pass, it would be still very hard for SegWit2x to yield some of the advantages and benefits that holders of Bitcoin have access to. With the introduction of Bitcoin Cash in 2017 August, it can be said that this cryptocurrency has made some milestones developments and attaining that status would be so hard for any competitor.
The Bitcoin market is expected to remain volatile towards the run-up to the upcoming hard fork. However, price action analysts hint that there may be a scope for a rally to fresh record highs, even though the sustainability of any kind of gains cannot be promised.
As the week began, prices showed a symmetrical triangle breakout that usually happens when prices form higher lows and lower highs. This is a bullish continuation pattern, and the upside break that had earlier been witnessed shows the continuation or revival of the rally.
There is, however, possibilities of a rally to new record highs that goes above $7,600 in the near future. Due to the overbought daily RSI (relative strength index), a rally to fresh record highs as such could not last for long.
Bitcoin ETFs To Follow Futures Products – Says CBOE President
The Chicago Board Options Exchanges President Chris Concannon has expressed great confidence in Bitcoin futures. While an earnings conference call earlier this week, the head of this derivative exchange operator pointed out that he expects ETFs – Exchange-Traded Funds based on the cryptocurrency to resume the market soon. He went ahead to refer to Bitcoin as the new asset class, adding that he trusts in the general space occupied by cryptocurrency.
Just a week ago, CME Group, which is another rival derivatives marketplace made clear its intentions to provide a Bitcoin futures contracts product before this year comes to an end. The firm made this announcement after CBOE said in August that it would also launch its own bid to provide derivatives that are based on cryptocurrencies. Just as CME Group, CBOE is also waiting on approval from the state regulators.
These two statements should be treated very serious bearing in mind that previous attempts to introduce Bitcoin-based ETFs haven’t borne any fruit. In September 2017, VanEck, a money manager, withdrew the filing it had made for a futures ETF after getting pushbacks from the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States. A week later, REX ETFs also withdrew the filings it had made.